By Kehinde Ogunyale |
The ongoing conflict involving the United States (US), Israel, and Iran has intensified, with sustained airstrikes, rising casualties, and shifting alliances drawing in neighbouring countries. As positions harden, several states are beginning to align either in support of or opposition to the escalation.
In the latest update on day 23 of the conflict, Iran warned of possible retaliatory attacks on key regional infrastructure if the U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has stated that he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the country fails to fully reopen the Strait within 48 hours.
On the geopolitical stage, alliances are becoming more defined. The United States continues to receive backing from close allies, including Israel, while some NATO members, such as the United Kingdom, have signalled support, with indications that U.S. military bases may be used to assist ongoing operations.
Conversely, countries including Russia, China, Pakistan, and Syria have condemned the strikes on Iran, describing them as a violation of international law and emphasising Iran’s right to defend itself.
Beyond the immediate region, the conflict is already exerting pressure on the global economy, contributing to rising oil prices, increased airfares, and broader disruptions across multiple sectors. Analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could deepen these pressures.
However, the implications of the war extend beyond economic shocks. Across Africa, its political and security ripple effects are becoming increasingly visible. Governments and political groups are beginning to take positions, reflecting a growing divide in responses to the crisis.
Now in its third week, the conflict is also being viewed through the lens of long-standing allegations around terrorism sponsorship and regional influence, issues that intersect in complex ways with security dynamics across Africa.
Terror Networks and Their African Footprint
Dataphyte analysis shows that several militant groups operating across Africa have, over time, developed ideological or operational links to broader networks rooted in the Middle East. These include global jihadist movements such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda, as well as affiliated organisations like Hezbollah and Hamas.
While these groups differ in structure and objectives, their influence has expanded beyond the Middle East over the past three decades.
The spread of such networks can be traced in part to periods of instability, including the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in Somalia in the early 1990s. Since then, extremist groups have established footholds across the Sahel, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of East and West Africa, often exploiting weak state structures and local conflicts.
To better understand these dynamics, Dataphyte traced the evolution of militant activity from the Middle East into Africa. The findings suggest a decentralised pattern, where global movements have fragmented into regional affiliates with increasingly localised agendas.
The Spread of Militancy Across Africa
Over the past three decades, military operations led by the United States and its allies have targeted militant groups across several countries, primarily in the Middle East. While these efforts have disrupted leadership structures and dismantled training camps, they have also coincided with the fragmentation of these groups into smaller, more diffuse networks.
Some of these splinter factions have expanded their presence into Africa.
Findings show that security incidents across more than 20 African countries can be linked to militant organisations with origins or ideological ties to the Middle East. Al-Qaeda, founded in 1988, now operates through multiple affiliates across at least 10 African countries.
Similarly, ISIS has developed a network of regional branches, including ISWAP in West Africa, as well as affiliates in the Sahel, Libya, Somalia, and Mozambique.
Overall, an estimated 12 major terrorist groups are currently active in about 24 of Africa’s 55 countries. Many of these groups have sustained operations since the early 2000s, embedding themselves within local conflicts and governance gaps.
One example is Boko Haram in Nigeria, which has evolved over time, splintering into factions and extending its operations beyond national borders.
Between 2015 and 2025, terrorist attacks are estimated to have caused more than 150,000 deaths across Africa, which emphasises the scale of the threat.
As global tensions rise, some analysts warn that Africa could once again become entangled in broader geopolitical rivalries. If the conflict escalates further, regions such as North and East Africa may face increased exposure to both direct threats and proxy dynamics.
In Nigeria, for instance, members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria and other sympathisers have taken to the streets in cities like Lagos and parts of northern Nigeria, protesting the killing of Ali Khamenei and condemning what they describe as foreign aggression.
While the war remains centred in the Middle East, its political, economic, and security implications are already being felt across Africa. The concern is that prolonged instability could reinforce existing vulnerabilities, creating new risks across the continent’s already fragile security landscape.
This report was first published by Dataphyte.
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