Civic-tech transparency watchdog BudgIT has raised intense alarm over the Federal Government’s newly approved 2026 budget, branding the historic N68.32 trillion fiscal plan as structurally flawed, unrealistic, and unfeasible under current economic conditions.
Initially presented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at N58.47 trillion, the record-breaking budget was drastically expanded by N9.09 trillion after the Senate adopted a late revision request. While the government maintains it will fund this massive expansion through a blend of revenue enhancements and fresh borrowings, experts warn the math simply does not add up, threatening to push Africa’s largest economy into deeper financial distress.
The N31 Trillion Deficit Dilemma
The core issue plaguing the fiscal plan is a severe structural imbalance. With total projected revenues sitting at N36.87 trillion against a planned spending spree of N68.32 trillion, the Nigerian government faces a staggering fiscal deficit of N31.45 trillion. This deficit represents 6.41% of the nation’s GDP, wildly violating the 3% ceiling established by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
Consequently, Nigeria can only fund roughly 53.9% of its budget from actual revenues, leaving a massive 46.1% entirely dependent on new loans and borrowing. Financial observers warn this reveals a structural fiscal crisis that has become permanently embedded within Nigeria’s governance framework.
The Crippling Weight of Debt Service
On paper, the government has signaled a commitment to infrastructure, allocating N32.28 trillion (47.13%) to capital expenditure. However, BudgIT emphasizes that these growth ambitions are heavily constrained by old debts. Debt servicing alone is projected to swallow N15.8 trillion, eating up 23% of total national spending and a jaw-dropping 45% of all expected government earnings. This leaves the treasury with incredibly tight fiscal space, pre-committing vital revenues before they are even collected.
Furthermore, public distrust remains high due to historically weak budget performance. In Nigeria, approved allocations rarely mirror reality, as actual fund releases remain opaque and notoriously difficult to track. BudgIT argues that true accountability requires the government to publish timely, accessible execution reports alongside raw allocation figures.
Misaligned Sectoral Priorities and Pre-Election Risks
A deeper dive into the sectoral allocations reveals a sharp disconnect from critical human development goals. Security received a massive N6.98 trillion chunk (10.21%), yet health and education continue to starve. Healthcare accounts for a meager 5.2% of the budget failing the 15% Abuja Declaration benchmark while education sits at just 4%, leaving Nigeria to grapple with a failing health ecosystem and over 18 million out-of-school children.
Analyzing the underlying motives behind these numbers, Engr. Adejoke Akinbode, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, warned that political optics might be taking precedence over real economic substance.
“The country is approaching an election year, and there are concerns that the budget may bear characteristics of a politically motivated, pre-election spending framework designed to maximise short-term visibility rather than long-term national value,” Akinbode stated. “Nigeria’s challenge is not just revenue generation, but revenue realism, expenditure discipline, sound debt management and institutional credibility.”
The Way Forward
To prevent this trajectory from worsening social outcomes and escalating fiscal vulnerability, BudgIT is calling for an immediate end to extra-budgetary and off-book spending. The organization urges the executive arm of government to deploy a strict prioritization framework, ensuring Nigeria’s limited resources are channeled away from political optics and directly into high-impact, economically catalytic projects that stimulate real long-term productivity.
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