At least 34 election-related violent incidents and 18 deaths have been recorded in Osun State since May 2026, according to data from the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) Conflict Tracker.
The figures come as voters prepare to elect the next governor of the state on Saturday, August 15, with concerns growing over the safety of voters, party supporters, journalists and electoral officials.
The violence has been reported across several communities, with recent incidents concentrated around Ilesa, Osogbo and Oriade.
However, casualty figures from different sources vary. The Nigeria Police Force has separately documented at least 30 killings it classified as politically motivated during the election build-up, while political parties have also reported deaths among their supporters.
These figures cannot be added together because they come from different sources, cover potentially overlapping incidents and use different criteria for determining whether a death was politically motivated.
Still, the conflicting figures underline the difficulty of establishing the full scale of violence ahead of the election.
Ilesa Emerges as Major Area of Concern
The pattern of incidents recorded by the CJID Conflict Tracker shows that Ilesa has emerged as one of the major areas of concern in the build-up to the election.
The Igbogi and Ikoti areas have recorded recent violence, while Egbatedo also witnessed an earlier attack in which one person was killed and several others were injured.
The Accord Party has also reported killings involving its members in Oriade, Ijebu-Jesha, Ilobu, Ikire and Osogbo.
Osogbo has recorded a significant number of incidents over the longer monitoring period, but the recent attacks suggest that the security concerns extend beyond the state capital.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has identified 11 local government areas as potential flashpoints ahead of the election. They are Atakumosa East, Atakumosa West, Boripe, Ede North, Ede South, Ife Central, Ifedayo, Ifelodun, Ila, Oriade and Osogbo.
Some of these areas overlap with communities where violence has already been reported.
The concentration of incidents in particular communities is significant because election violence can have an impact beyond the immediate location of an attack.
Fear generated by an attack can discourage voters from going to polling units, while party agents and residents may become reluctant to openly identify with political groups.
Political and Cult-Related Violence Overlap
One of the challenges in tracking the violence is the difficulty of separating political attacks from criminal and cult-related incidents.
Police accounts have attributed some of the recent killings to cult-related reprisals, while civil society monitors have raised concerns about the involvement of local armed networks in political mobilisation.
This overlap makes it difficult to establish the motive behind every attack.
An incident may involve individuals with criminal or cult affiliations while taking place within a wider political dispute.
The political environment has also become increasingly competitive following Governor Ademola Adeleke’s defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Accord Party.
The move has changed the dynamics of the election, with several political blocs and grassroots structures shifting their allegiance.
The PDP and Labour Party are not fielding candidates in the governorship election, while former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and other political actors have publicly aligned with opposing camps.
The resulting realignment has created intense competition for political structures, wards and grassroots support.
While the available evidence does not establish that the political realignment directly caused individual violent incidents, it provides important context for understanding the increasingly tense campaign.
Parties Trade Accusations
Political parties have also presented different accounts of casualties during the campaign.
The All Progressives Congress (APC), for instance, alleged that 12 of its supporters were killed within 24 hours in Ilesa, including five people allegedly killed at a weekend rally and seven others who were reportedly attacked while gathering for a campaign event.
The Accord Party has separately claimed that eight of its members were killed within one week.
The claims remain separate and should not be treated as a single casualty figure.
The competing allegations have also contributed to a cycle of accusations, with political camps blaming one another for attacks against their supporters.
Such accusations can heighten tensions and create the risk of retaliation, particularly in communities where political mobilisation overlaps with existing armed or cult networks.
Could Violence Affect Voter Turnout?
A major concern going into election day is whether the violence recorded during the campaign will affect voter participation.
An attack does not have to occur at a polling unit to influence voting behaviour.
Voters who feel unsafe travelling to polling stations may decide to stay home. Party agents may avoid locations they consider dangerous, while residents in affected communities may be reluctant to openly display their political preferences.
These effects may be difficult to measure immediately after the election.
However, comparing turnout in communities affected by violence with previous election figures could provide useful evidence about the possible impact of insecurity on participation.
Turnout in the 2022 Osun governorship election was about 42 per cent.
A significant decline in turnout in communities that experienced violence would not, by itself, prove that insecurity caused the drop. It would, however, provide a basis for further investigation.
Security Presence Under Scrutiny
The Nigeria Police Force has announced the deployment of 15,000 officers for the election, while the military is expected to provide support in areas considered particularly volatile.
The deployment reflects the seriousness of the security concerns surrounding the poll.
But the size of the security operation alone may not determine whether the election is peaceful.
What will matter is how security personnel conduct themselves, where they are deployed, how quickly they respond to incidents and whether voters and political actors consider their actions impartial.
Equal treatment of political parties and voters will be critical to maintaining confidence in the electoral process.
Security agencies will also have to prevent intimidation, protect electoral materials and ensure that voters can access polling and collation centres without obstruction.
Election Day and After
Based on the incidents recorded so far, campaign movements, party gatherings and identified flashpoints will require close monitoring as the election approaches.
On election day, attention will also be focused on possible intimidation around polling units, clashes between supporters, interference with electoral materials and tensions at collation centres.
The period after voting may be equally important.
A close or disputed result could intensify existing grievances, particularly in communities that have already experienced violence during the campaign.
The conduct of political parties, candidates, security agencies and INEC after the results are announced will therefore play an important role in determining whether tensions decline or continue.
Beyond the Poll
The immediate responsibility of security agencies is to protect voters and prevent political actors from using violence to influence participation.
INEC must ensure that the election is conducted transparently, while political parties and candidates must restrain their supporters and reject retaliation.
The media and civil society organisations also have a role to play by documenting incidents responsibly and avoiding the spread of unverified casualty figures or inflammatory claims.
The 34 violent incidents and 18 deaths recorded by the CJID Conflict Tracker provide a baseline for assessing what happens during and after the election.
The immediate question is whether the security agencies can prevent further violence and create an environment in which citizens can vote freely.
The longer-term question is whether the political and social tensions behind the violence will ease after the winner is declared.
Osun will have a winner when the votes are counted. But whether the election can also bring an end to the tensions that have marked the campaign will depend largely on what happens on election day and in the days that follow.
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