The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has officially released its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), providing a comprehensive roadmap of the nation’s expected weather patterns. The report has prompted immediate calls from civil society for improved infrastructure to protect vulnerable populations from looming climate risks.
Launched on Tuesday at the nation’s capital, the SCP serves as a critical decision-making tool for sectors ranging from agriculture and water resources to public health and disaster management.
Key Forecast Highlights
According to NiMet’s projections, the 2026 rainy season is expected to follow a timeline across the federation, starting with the earliest onset, Predicted for February 23 in Bayelsa State, central state rainfall is expected to begin between April 21 and May 15, and lastly Northern Region season is projected to start between June 18 and June 23.
While much of the country is anticipated to see normal annual rainfall, the agency issued a stern warning regarding variability. Some states are expected to record above-normal rainfall increasing the risk of flash flooding while others may face below-normal conditions.
Furthermore, the agency warned of a severe and prolonged August break (Little Dry Season) in southwestern states like Lagos and Ogun, alongside moderate to severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days in other regions.
Call for Action
In a swift reaction to the report, the Human and Environmental Development Agenda (HEDA Resource Centre) Executive Secretary, sulaimon Arigbabu emphasized that data alone is insufficient to prevent disaster. He stressed that the effectiveness of the SCP depends entirely on how well the information reaches the last mile the farmers and local communities most at risk.
“Seasonal climate forecasts remain most effective when supported by strong early warning systems, sustained public awareness, and clear preparedness frameworks,” stated Sulaimon Arigbabu, Executive Secretary of HEDA. “The urgency of translating climate information into practical action is critical, particularly for our most vulnerable communities.”
Enhancing National Resilience
HEDA is advocating for a significant increase in investment toward localized climate communication. The organization noted that the predicted warmer-than-average temperatures and extreme dry spells necessitate a shift toward digital advisory platforms and better institutional coordination.
As the 2026 season approaches, the consensus among stakeholders remains clear: while NiMet provides the map, the government and private sector must provide the shield to ensure Nigeria’s food security and public safety remain intact.
