The Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) has warned that continued fossil fuel expansion and corporate influence could undermine Africa’s climate commitments and leave vulnerable communities bearing the costs of the energy transition.
The organisation raised the concerns on Tuesday alongside the Africa Make Big Polluters Pay Coalition at the Hybrid Launch and Media Presentation of the Energy Transition Plan and Five-Country Nationally Determined Contributions, as governments, negotiators and civil society organisations gather for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye.
The two reports, titled Four Years On: Examining Nigeria’s Just Transition Plan and Nationally Determined Contributions in Africa: A Five-Country Analysis, assessed climate commitments and the policies, financing arrangements and social protections needed to implement them in Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, Togo and Uganda.
Africa’s Climate Commitments Face Fossil Fuel Contradictions
In his opening remarks, CAPPA’s Executive Director, Akinbode Oluwafemi, said Africa had contributed relatively little to the historical emissions driving climate change but continued to experience a disproportionate share of its effects, including floods, extreme heat and drought.
He said Nigeria’s climate ambitions were being weakened by continued dependence on oil and gas, inadequate social protections and financing arrangements that could deepen national debt. He also warned that corporate interests could profit from climate policies while communities continued to experience environmental damage and loss of livelihoods.
Oluwafemi said the reports provided an opportunity to reconsider how energy policies and climate commitments could better serve people and communities, stressing that equity, transparency and accountability must remain central to the transition.
Presenting the findings, CAPPA’s Assistant Executive Director, Zikorah Ibeh, said the assessment recognised progress in policy development and renewable energy deployment but found that such progress had not displaced the economic structures sustaining fossil fuel dependence.
“Our assessment recognises progress in policy development and renewable energy deployment but finds that cleaner energy is being layered onto an economy still heavily focused on oil and gas, without sufficient change in the institutions and revenue systems that sustain that dependence,” Ibeh said.
The Nigeria assessment highlighted a contradiction between the country’s climate commitments and production plans, noting that Nigeria aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 while retaining an official target to produce three million barrels of oil daily by 2030.
Gas Expansion and Carbon Markets Raise Accountability Concerns
The report also cited Cameroon’s decision to move five oil exploration blocks into contract negotiations with Murphy West Africa and Octavia Energy as another example of the tension between climate commitments and continued fossil fuel development.
CAPPA questioned the promotion of natural gas as a clean transition fuel, noting that methane, its principal component, had been responsible for nearly 30 per cent of global warming since the Industrial Revolution.
Ibeh said investments that prolong dependence on gas required closer scrutiny because of their climate consequences and the public resources they could divert from renewable energy development.
The reports also raised concerns about carbon markets, arguing that offsetting could allow polluters to delay direct emissions reductions by claiming compensation through projects elsewhere, including forests and plantations.
The organisation cited Uganda’s climate plan, which assigns far greater projected emissions reductions to commercial plantations than to its two natural-forest restoration measures. It also referenced documentation by the Oakland Institute of forced evictions linked to a forestry and carbon-credit project in Kachung, Uganda.
CAPPA warned that rural communities could lose ancestral lands to corporations pursuing projects presented as environmentally friendly, particularly where land rights were weak and affected people had little influence over decisions.
Climate Finance Risks Deepening Africa’s Debt Burden
The reports questioned climate financing arrangements that rely heavily on loans, warning that African countries could end up repaying more than they received while responding to a crisis they contributed relatively little to creating.
“When countries must borrow to confront damage they have done little to cause, climate finance risks transferring the cost of historical pollution to its victims,” Ibeh said.
CAPPA noted that Nigeria estimated it required $337bn between 2026 and 2035 to meet its climate commitments, with 80 per cent expected from international funding. Togo, meanwhile, made 69.9 per cent of its financing requirement conditional on international support.
The organisation also reported that approximately 80 per cent of international financial support recorded for South Africa’s climate commitments in 2021 and 2022 came in the form of loans.
It cited research by Oxfam and the CARE Climate Justice Centre, which estimated that about $62bn in climate loans received by developing countries in 2022 could generate up to $88bn in repayments over their lifetime.
According to CAPPA, such financing arrangements risk shifting the financial burden of historical pollution to countries already experiencing disproportionate climate impacts, rather than providing the grant-based support needed to address the crisis.
Weak Social Protections Threaten a Just Energy Transition
The Nigeria assessment found that responsibility for implementing the energy transition was spread across different institutions, while financing depended heavily on anticipated investments. It also identified inadequate enforceable guarantees for workers and affected communities on income security, retraining and environmental restoration.
CAPPA said a just transition should guarantee reliable and affordable electricity, protect livelihoods and restore environments damaged by extractive activities, particularly in the Niger Delta and other communities affected by oil and gas operations.
Citing World Bank figures, Ibeh said more than 80 million Nigerians lacked access to electricity as of March 2025, arguing that the transition must deliver improved energy access alongside emissions reductions.
Ndivile Mokoena, Founder and Chief Executive of Yielding Intersectional Movements in South Africa, which participated in the five-country study, said climate commitments must translate into practical action, adequate financing and support for developing countries.
“The persistent gap between global climate commitments and local realities raises critical questions about political will and economic systems that continue to prioritise profit and growth over human well-being and ecological sustainability,” she said.
Similarly, Acola Amina, Executive Director of Nia Environment and Zero Carbon Alliance in Uganda, said an inclusive climate agenda must reflect the realities and needs of affected communities.
“Achieving a rights-based, ecofeminist climate agenda that reflects Uganda’s realities and responds to the needs of affected communities requires inclusive participation and collective commitment,” she said.
CAPPA, Partners Demand Stronger Climate Safeguards
CAPPA and its partners called on African negotiators attending COP31 in Türkiye to reject carbon offsetting as a substitute for direct emissions reductions and demand safeguards against corporate influence over national climate policies.
They urged governments to protect communal lands and livelihoods by establishing enforceable rights for Indigenous Peoples, smallholder farmers, rural women and frontline communities against land appropriation for plantations and carbon projects.
The organisations also called for predictable, grant-based climate finance from historically high-emitting countries, rather than financing arrangements that could deepen African countries’ indebtedness.
They further advocated a planned and funded phase-down of fossil fuel extraction, supported by investments in decentralised renewable energy and affordable electricity.
According to the organisations, such a transition must also provide workers with income security and retraining opportunities while ensuring environmental remediation and livelihood restoration for communities affected by extractive activities.
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